It is always my intention to give as much perspective on fantasy sports as I can long before the rest of the world chimes in. The more you see and interpret the better prepared you will be when draft day arrives. This season is a complete disconnect from the previous few.
For the longest time I have asserted that LaDanainian Tomlinson is the unquestioned #1 pick until further notice...This is further notice. I don't even think that I in good conscious can even put him in the top five among RBs. Without a shadow of a doubt, it should be obvious that Adrian Peterson is 1 and Michael Turner is 2. After that begins the conjecture.
If you subscribe to the school of thought that dictates you base the bulk of your decision on previous season's production, you might just go chalk. Names like Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, Clinton Portis, and Marion Barber may come to mind. The other premier concept is to take a rough estimate on a players 2-3 year clip of production. These players would include, Willie Parker, Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, Larry Johnson, etc. I would like to include the "upside" aspect to the argument. This would include players who had good rookie or second year campaigns or rookies that have yet to play that could have significant seasons.
I supply this idea due to the fact that my first fantasy football championship had a couple of Vikings that no one gave much credit to at the time, but who's draft value was undeniable. The 2000 Daunte Culpepper and Randy Moss. Both of which were taken at great value rounds and proved to be a major contributor to that run. A more recent example is Adrian Peterson's rookie season. He was my 3rd RB taken in the sixth round. Don't let Matthew Berry tell that it is never a smart idea to draft rookies or for upside.
Running backs at the top of the draft is just not going to be as sure a thing as in the past. It will take a greater deal of research and the crunching of numbers to hit RB just right this season. Understand that the following 15 RBs list takes into consideration all of the previously stated criteria as well as details like, new coaching staff/philosophy, additional offensive players (LT,WR, TE) that may effect how a RB performs, stylistic strengths and weaknesses, and other factors.
Adrian Peterson
Michael Turner
Brian Westbrook
LaDainain Tomlinson
Steven Jackson
Willie Parker
Marion Barber
Knowshon Moreno (R)
Matt Forte
DeAngelo Williams
Clinton Portis
Chris Johnson
Marshawn Lynch
Maurice Jones-Drew
Jamal Lewis
Please understand that it is early JUNE. This list will be picked over and re-evaluated at least 20 more times before the start of the regular season. Just my initial observations.
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